"His argument is that road projects just create more traffic through the principle of induced demand. This is the concept that when a vehicle journey becomes easier and faster it simply encourages more people to drive and the old level of congestion returns."
The problem with this idea is that you could also use it to justify demolishing the existing tunnels. All the traffic that goes through it is just induced demand after all.
More seriously, cars and roads have negative externalities - if you build and build and build, the negatives start to outweigh the positives (like allowing people to travel). Shouting "induced demand!" whenever anyone tries to build a road doesn't tell you if you're anywhere near the point at which that happens. Given how hard it is to build infrastructure in the UK, how much the population has grown, and that there are notoriously few crossings in East London, it's fairly likely that the positives of Silvertown outweigh the negatives.
That said, I do sympathise with people who live nearby
There is no bus lane! It’s a big peeve of mine that this ruse is working. It’s a “bus and HGV” lane - despite the meaningless paint on the road, the signs allow HGVs on this lane. Given that the tunnel will encourage new hgv traffic that couldn’t go in the Blackwall, this bus lane is worse than having nothing at all - passengers will be disappointed that they’re stuck in the same tunnel traffic as cars and lorries and will surely give up on them. Bus services are only guaranteed until a certain year (can’t remember when) so TfL will be justified in cutting services at the first opportunity.
It’s not the fact that HGVs are allowed on the bus lane that will necessarily be the issue. The issue is the complete lack of bus priority on the approach to the tunnel. General traffic is being funelled into a single lane from two+ with buses likely to be stuck in that very same traffic before being able to reach the bus lane in the tunnel.
I work in construction and use a cargo bike instead of a van. It’s extremely frustrating that I’m unable to cross the river for work via Silvertown–I live in nearby Leytonstone–instead, I’ll need to rely on the Woolwich ferry, which adds a lot of time to my journey, or to hope that the generally unreliable Greenwich foot tunnel lifts are operational which is a long way to travel to/from for a gamble as there appears to be no way to find out ahead of time. The bike bus cannot accommodate bikes longer than 2.14m, which rules out pretty much all work-related bikes, so what is even the point?
A little addition to that rant; I also use the bike as my primary mode of transport for my young family. So it’s doubly frustrating that a crossing so close to home isn’t available to us when we have family in south London also
Really? I think I see the Urban Arrow Family bike on the road more than any other–work cycles aside–then perhaps longtails like the Tern GSD. But I see plenty of R&M Loads and Packsters as well as the odd bakfiets. That being said I’m speaking purely anecdotally. Are there any stats out there?
It can, but limited to bikes that are 2.14m long which you’ll see from this link is very limiting – most of the front-loading cargo bikes you’ll see out on the road will be too long
TfL claim that the toll will control the levels of traffic and that it will lead to little to no increase in traffic. It won't happen. The toll can be increased, but there's no obligation to do so tying it to traffic levels and politicians will be too cowardly to keep raising it to the required levels to control the traffic. See the London Congestion Charge and the Fuel Duty Escalator. It will fill up in 3-5 years and there will be more congestion than ever. Also, the A2 can't cope with the traffic coming southbound PM and this will now be hugely increased in volume.
I'm sure I read that a FOI inquiry revealed that the cost of cancelling the Silvertown Tunnel was so prohibitive that Khan couldn't realistically do so.
Khan has shown his willingness to take on unpopular opinions to reduce emissions. ULEZ has been a success in that regard. While I'm not thrilled by the new tunnel, the Blackwall clearly couldn't cope. The problem that remains is people's devotion to the convenience of cars, especially for unnecessary, solo, journeys. Public transport could obviously be better, but you can get pretty much anywhere in London, usually with a variety of options. We need to stop pandering to people who refuse to use it. They're why traffic in London is a nightmare, not Sadiq Khan.
The unreported drama is "How come our dozy civil terdants can repeatedly p155 away so much taxpayers money BEFORE a scheme is FULLY approved/funded - Silvertown Tunnel HS2, Crossrail, Channel Rail link, Heathrow expansion ...zzzzzzz
At the end of the day, Blackwell tunnel is a complete disaster for traffic and restricts the mobility of everyone who lives in South london, so whether or not silvertown is going to reduce carbon emissions is irrelevant. The success of silvertown is going to be judged on whether it resolves the problems with traffic caused by Blackwell. We know rolling works and is a remedy for induced demand when used properly, but the risk is the toll isn't high enough ...
Would quite welcome hearing less from the "stop the silver town tunnel coalition" now that it's errr started. I'm sure there's things that could have been done better or can be further improved once we've seen the impact. Now let's replace Hammersmith bridge without yet more consultations.
The SL4 route-learning video on Murky's marvellous site highlights a few immediate deficiencies with the layout of the tunnel - the chief one being the abrupt curtailment of the bus lane that occupies half the tunnel. Coupled with the habitual horse-trading that occurs on the way into the tunnel, as well as the need for the bus to cross the Southbound lanes to meet the flyover, there may be a few near-misses in the coming days. The new 'last-mile' courier warehouse at Tunnel Avenue certainly won't help matters.
Irony abounds: the ludicrous claims that the ELRiC scheme would have bulldozed Oxleas are partly responsible for the choice of location today. Nor can one set aside the local Conservative parties of Greenwich and Bexley, declaring 'war on the motorist' back in the early 90s. The photos of red-cheeked puffers standing outside the Strand in their legal challenge to the Mayor echo the ones made thirty odd years prior. Plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth, but not a shred of recall.
As for me, I have a marvellous view of the viaduct (TfL neglected to provide sound barriers for the houses directly along the north lane) so will sit in my wheelchair with my binoculars and consider where best to locate my snack bar. The evening traffic will likely be fierce.
I never knew a mayor can physically build a tunnel?? He can have people study it, support it, have engineers run models, design it and foreman and construction workers build it.
"His argument is that road projects just create more traffic through the principle of induced demand. This is the concept that when a vehicle journey becomes easier and faster it simply encourages more people to drive and the old level of congestion returns."
The problem with this idea is that you could also use it to justify demolishing the existing tunnels. All the traffic that goes through it is just induced demand after all.
More seriously, cars and roads have negative externalities - if you build and build and build, the negatives start to outweigh the positives (like allowing people to travel). Shouting "induced demand!" whenever anyone tries to build a road doesn't tell you if you're anywhere near the point at which that happens. Given how hard it is to build infrastructure in the UK, how much the population has grown, and that there are notoriously few crossings in East London, it's fairly likely that the positives of Silvertown outweigh the negatives.
That said, I do sympathise with people who live nearby
Came here to write a comment but you have put it far better than I could have.
‘Caroline Russell, the leader of the Greens in the London Assembly, called it a “project that nobody in London has shown any real enthusiasm for”. ‘
I know plenty of people who live in London who are enthusiastic about the new tunnel. It’s needed.
There is no bus lane! It’s a big peeve of mine that this ruse is working. It’s a “bus and HGV” lane - despite the meaningless paint on the road, the signs allow HGVs on this lane. Given that the tunnel will encourage new hgv traffic that couldn’t go in the Blackwall, this bus lane is worse than having nothing at all - passengers will be disappointed that they’re stuck in the same tunnel traffic as cars and lorries and will surely give up on them. Bus services are only guaranteed until a certain year (can’t remember when) so TfL will be justified in cutting services at the first opportunity.
It’s not the fact that HGVs are allowed on the bus lane that will necessarily be the issue. The issue is the complete lack of bus priority on the approach to the tunnel. General traffic is being funelled into a single lane from two+ with buses likely to be stuck in that very same traffic before being able to reach the bus lane in the tunnel.
I work in construction and use a cargo bike instead of a van. It’s extremely frustrating that I’m unable to cross the river for work via Silvertown–I live in nearby Leytonstone–instead, I’ll need to rely on the Woolwich ferry, which adds a lot of time to my journey, or to hope that the generally unreliable Greenwich foot tunnel lifts are operational which is a long way to travel to/from for a gamble as there appears to be no way to find out ahead of time. The bike bus cannot accommodate bikes longer than 2.14m, which rules out pretty much all work-related bikes, so what is even the point?
A little addition to that rant; I also use the bike as my primary mode of transport for my young family. So it’s doubly frustrating that a crossing so close to home isn’t available to us when we have family in south London also
I understood electric bikes could use the bus, is that not right?
https://bikes.louiseveillard.com/
Yeah bullet style bikes out for the most part, but they aren't as popular as they used to be for domestic use at least
Really? I think I see the Urban Arrow Family bike on the road more than any other–work cycles aside–then perhaps longtails like the Tern GSD. But I see plenty of R&M Loads and Packsters as well as the odd bakfiets. That being said I’m speaking purely anecdotally. Are there any stats out there?
It can, but limited to bikes that are 2.14m long which you’ll see from this link is very limiting – most of the front-loading cargo bikes you’ll see out on the road will be too long
Just wanted to say thanks for reading Khan's 'climate policy memoir' so the rest of us don't have to.
TfL claim that the toll will control the levels of traffic and that it will lead to little to no increase in traffic. It won't happen. The toll can be increased, but there's no obligation to do so tying it to traffic levels and politicians will be too cowardly to keep raising it to the required levels to control the traffic. See the London Congestion Charge and the Fuel Duty Escalator. It will fill up in 3-5 years and there will be more congestion than ever. Also, the A2 can't cope with the traffic coming southbound PM and this will now be hugely increased in volume.
I'm sure I read that a FOI inquiry revealed that the cost of cancelling the Silvertown Tunnel was so prohibitive that Khan couldn't realistically do so.
Khan has shown his willingness to take on unpopular opinions to reduce emissions. ULEZ has been a success in that regard. While I'm not thrilled by the new tunnel, the Blackwall clearly couldn't cope. The problem that remains is people's devotion to the convenience of cars, especially for unnecessary, solo, journeys. Public transport could obviously be better, but you can get pretty much anywhere in London, usually with a variety of options. We need to stop pandering to people who refuse to use it. They're why traffic in London is a nightmare, not Sadiq Khan.
The unreported drama is "How come our dozy civil terdants can repeatedly p155 away so much taxpayers money BEFORE a scheme is FULLY approved/funded - Silvertown Tunnel HS2, Crossrail, Channel Rail link, Heathrow expansion ...zzzzzzz
At the end of the day, Blackwell tunnel is a complete disaster for traffic and restricts the mobility of everyone who lives in South london, so whether or not silvertown is going to reduce carbon emissions is irrelevant. The success of silvertown is going to be judged on whether it resolves the problems with traffic caused by Blackwell. We know rolling works and is a remedy for induced demand when used properly, but the risk is the toll isn't high enough ...
Would quite welcome hearing less from the "stop the silver town tunnel coalition" now that it's errr started. I'm sure there's things that could have been done better or can be further improved once we've seen the impact. Now let's replace Hammersmith bridge without yet more consultations.
The SL4 route-learning video on Murky's marvellous site highlights a few immediate deficiencies with the layout of the tunnel - the chief one being the abrupt curtailment of the bus lane that occupies half the tunnel. Coupled with the habitual horse-trading that occurs on the way into the tunnel, as well as the need for the bus to cross the Southbound lanes to meet the flyover, there may be a few near-misses in the coming days. The new 'last-mile' courier warehouse at Tunnel Avenue certainly won't help matters.
Irony abounds: the ludicrous claims that the ELRiC scheme would have bulldozed Oxleas are partly responsible for the choice of location today. Nor can one set aside the local Conservative parties of Greenwich and Bexley, declaring 'war on the motorist' back in the early 90s. The photos of red-cheeked puffers standing outside the Strand in their legal challenge to the Mayor echo the ones made thirty odd years prior. Plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth, but not a shred of recall.
As for me, I have a marvellous view of the viaduct (TfL neglected to provide sound barriers for the houses directly along the north lane) so will sit in my wheelchair with my binoculars and consider where best to locate my snack bar. The evening traffic will likely be fierce.
Bleak day for London. We need more affordable and more accessible public transport.
Give tunnels a chance!
I never knew a mayor can physically build a tunnel?? He can have people study it, support it, have engineers run models, design it and foreman and construction workers build it.